Machine Learning Methods to Exploit the Predictive Power of Open, High, Low, Close (OHLC) Data

Novel machine learning techniques are developed for the prediction of financial markets, with a combination of supervised, unsupervised and Bayesian optimisation machine learning methods shown able to give a predictive power rarely previously observed. A new data mining technique named Deep Candlestick Mining (DCM) is proposed that is able to discover highly predictive dataset specific candlestick patterns (arrangements of open, high, low, close (OHLC) aggregated price data structures) which significantly outperform traditional candlestick patterns. The power that OHLC features can provide is further investigated, using LSTM RNNs and XGBoost trees, in the prediction of a mid-price directional change, defined here as the mid-point between either the open and close or high and low of an OHLC bar. This target variable has been overlooked in the literature, which is surprising given the relative ease of predicting it, significantly in excess of noisier financial quantities. However, the true value of this quantity is only known upon the period's ending – i.e. it is an after-the-fact observation. To make use of and enhance the remarkable predictability of the mid-price directional change, multi-period predictions are investigated by training many LSTM RNNs (XGBoost trees being used to identify powerful OHLC input feature combinations), over different time horizons, to construct a Bayesian optimised trend prediction ensemble. This fusion of long-, medium- and short-term information results in a model capable of predicting market trend direction to greater than 70% better than random. A trading strategy is constructed to demonstrate how this predictive power can be used by exploiting an artefact of the LSTM RNN training process which allows the trading system to size and place trades in accordance with the ensemble's predictive certainty

Virus isolation studies suggest short-term variations in abundance in natural cyanophage populations of the Indian Ocean

Cyanophage abundance has been shown to fluctuate over long timescales and with depth, but little is known about how it varies over short timescales. Previous short-term studies have relied on counting total virus numbers and therefore the phages which infect cyanobacteria cannot be distinguished from the total count. In this study, an isolation-based approach was used to determine cyanophage abundance from water samples collected over a depth profile for a 24 h period from the Indian Ocean. Samples were used to infect Synechococcus sp. WH7803 and the number of plaque forming units (pfu) at each time point and depth were counted. At 10 m phage numbers were similar for most time-points, but there was a distinct peak in abundance at 0100 hours. Phage numbers were lower at 25 m and 50 m and did not show such strong temporal variation. No phages were found below this depth. Therefore, we conclude that only the abundance of phages in surface waters showed a clear temporal pattern over a short timescale. Fifty phages from a range of depths and time points were isolated and purified. The molecular diversity of these phages was estimated using a section of the phage-encoded psbD gene and the results from a phylogenetic analysis do not suggest that phages from the deeper waters form a distinct subgroup

Kepler-445, Kepler-446 And The Occurrence Of Compact Multiples Orbiting Mid-M Dwarf Stars

We confirm and characterize the exoplanetary systems Kepler-445 and Kepler-446: two mid-M dwarf stars, each with multiple, small, short-period transiting planets. Kepler-445 is a metal-rich ([ Fe/H] = + 0.25 0.10) M4 dwarf with three transiting planets, and Kepler-446 is a metal-poor ([ Fe/H] = -0.30 0.10) M4 dwarf also with three transiting planets. Kepler-445c is similar toGJ 1214b: both in planetary radius and the properties of the host star. The Kepler-446 system is similar to the Kepler-42 system: both are metal-poor with large galactic space velocities and three short-period, likely rocky transiting planets that were initially assigned erroneously large planet-to-star radius ratios. We independently determined stellar parameters from spectroscopy and searched for and fitted the transit light curves for the planets, imposing a strict prior on stellar density in order to remove correlations between the fitted impact parameter and planet-to-star radius ratio for short-duration transits. Combining Kepler-445, Kepler-446, and Kepler-42, and isolating all mid-M dwarf stars observed by Kepler with the precision necessary to detect similar systems, we calculate that 21+ 7 -5 % of mid-M dwarf stars host compact multiples ( multiple planets with periods of less than 10 days) for a wide range of metallicities. We suggest that the inferred planet masses for these systems support highly efficient accretion of protoplanetary disk metals by mid-M dwarf protoplanets.NSF DGE1144152, AST-1005313NASA NAS5-26555NASA Office of Space Science NNX13AC07GAstronom

Stellar and Planetary Properties of K2 Campaign 1 Candidates and Validation of 17 Planets, Including a Planet Receiving Earth-like Insolation

The extended Kepler mission, K2, is now providing photometry of new fields every three months in a search for transiting planets. In a recent study, Foreman-Mackey and collaborators presented a list of 36 planet candidates orbiting 31 stars in K2 Campaign 1. In this contribution, we present stellar and planetary properties for all systems. We combine ground-based seeing-limited survey data and adaptive optics imaging with an automated transit analysis scheme to validate 21 candidates as planets, 17 for the first time, and identify 6 candidates as likely false positives. Of particular interest is K2-18 (EPIC 201912552), a bright (K=8.9) M2.8 dwarf hosting a 2.23 \pm 0.25 R_Earth planet with T_eq = 272 \pm 15 K and an orbital period of 33 days. We also present two new open-source software packages which enable this analysis. The first, isochrones, is a flexible tool for fitting theoretical stellar models to observational data to determine stellar properties using a nested sampling scheme to capture the multimodal nature of the posterior distributions of the physical parameters of stars that may plausibly be evolved. The second is vespa, a new general-purpose procedure to calculate false positive probabilities and statistically validate transiting exoplanets.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures, 5 tables, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. Updated to closely reflect published version in ApJ (2015, 809, 25

Determination of Inter-Phase Line Tension in Langmuir Films

A Langmuir film is a molecularly thin film on the surface of a fluid; we study the evolution of a Langmuir film with two co-existing fluid phases driven by an inter-phase line tension and damped by the viscous drag of the underlying subfluid. Experimentally, we study an 8CB Langmuir film via digitally-imaged Brewster Angle Microscopy (BAM) in a four-roll mill setup which applies a transient strain and images the response. When a compact domain is stretched by the imposed strain, it first assumes a bola shape with two tear-drop shaped reservoirs connected by a thin tether which then slowly relaxes to a circular domain which minimizes the interfacial energy of the system. We process the digital images of the experiment to extract the domain shapes. We then use one of these shapes as an initial condition for the numerical solution of a boundary-integral model of the underlying hydrodynamics and compare the subsequent images of the experiment to the numerical simulation. The numerical evolutions first verify that our hydrodynamical model can reproduce the observed dynamics. They also allow us to deduce the magnitude of the line tension in the system, often to within 1%. We find line tensions in the range of 200-600 pN; we hypothesize that this variation is due to differences in the layer depths of the 8CB fluid phases.Comment: See (http://www.math.hmc.edu/~ajb/bola/) for related movie

What knowledge is needed? Teaching undergraduate medical students to “go upstream” and advocate on social determinants of health

Background: We rarely teach medical students the skills required to engage in policy change to address the structural factors that underpin the social determinants of health, which are driven by the unequal distribution of power and resources in society. Acquiring the knowledge and skills to influence policy can empower students to act on healthcare inequities rather than simply be aware of them. Methods: Using Metzl and Hansen’s structural competency framework, we designed and piloted an intervention for medical students. Participants attended a workshop, presented to a hypothetical political stakeholder, and wrote an opinion editorial piece. Students participated in a focus group that was audio-recorded and transcribed. We coded and analyzed presentations, editorials, and transcripts to develop a thematic analysis. Results: Nine students participated in the workshop. They chose structural interventions and presented potential solutions to structural barriers in written and oral outputs. Students identified a lack of knowledge about health and political systems as a potential barrier to future advocacy work. Conclusion: Medical trainees require training in specific advocacy skills such as oral and written communication, however this alone may be insufficient. As future advocates, trainees must also acquire a specific skill set and associated knowledge about health systems and policy to navigate the systems in which they will practice.   &nbsp

Ages for exoplanet host stars

Age is an important characteristic of a planetary system, but also one that is difficult to determine. Assuming that the host star and the planets are formed at the same time, the challenge is to determine the stellar age. Asteroseismology provides precise age determination, but in many cases the required detailed pulsation observations are not available. Here we concentrate on other techniques, which may have broader applicability but also serious limitations. Further development of this area requires improvements in our understanding of the evolution of stars and their age-dependent characteristics, combined with observations that allow reliable calibration of the various techniques.Comment: To appear in "Handbook of Exoplanets", eds. Deeg, H.J. & Belmonte, J.A, Springer (2018

Stepping Up The Pressure: Arousal Can Be Associated With A Reduction In Male Aggression

The attentional myopia model of behavioral control [Mann and Ward, 2007] was tested in an experiment investigating the relationship between physiological arousal and aggression. Drawing on previous work linking arousal and narrowed attentional focus, the model predicts that arousal will lead to behavior that is relatively disinhibited in situations in which promoting pressures to aggress are highly salient. In situations in which inhibitory pressures are more salient, the model predicts behavior that is relatively restrained. In the experiment, 81 male undergraduates delivered noise-blasts against a provoking confederate while experiencing either high or low levels of physiological arousal and, at the same time, being exposed to cues that served either to promote or inhibit aggression. In addition to supporting the predictions of the model, this experiment provided some of the first evidence for enhanced control of aggression under conditions of heightened physiological arousal. Implications for interventions designed to reduce aggression are discussed. Aggr. Behav. 34:584–592, 2008. © 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc